Boy, do I love award season! It all leads up to one suspenseful night filled with champagne & deviled eggs. Hopefully I won't pass out on the car ride home again like last year; Tarantino was robbed in the Best Original Screenplay category. I was so upset, I drank myself stupid. I would also like to have a chat with whomever thought Anne Hathaway would make a good host. BLUE VALENTINE is my favorite film out of this year's picks; check it out if you haven't already. So I've done a little research and without further adieu, here are my 2011 Oscar Predictions:
I've pretty much seen every nominated film in this category except TOY STORY 3 which I refuse to watch. Maybe instead of nominating an animated film for Best Pic, The Academy could have nominated a real film like BLUE VALENTINE. What is this The People's Choice Awards? I personally would love to see WINTER'S BONE get some recognition but that won't happen. This year, the race is between THE KING'S SPEECH and THE SOCIAL NETWORK.
Final Answer: THE KING'S SPEECH
Shame on The Academy for snubbing Christopher Nolan. I'm not saying he should win this award, but he at best deserved a nomination. This is the year that Fincher finally gets the recognition he deserves. He is an incredible director who has come a long way from being an assistant cameraman on RETURN OF THE JEDI and shooting Paula Abdul videos.
Final Answer: David Fincher THE SOCIAL NETWORK
The minute I saw THE KING'S SPEECH, I knew Colin Firth was gonna dominate this category. In all honesty, he should have gotten an Oscar for A SINGLE MAN, but it was The Dude's turn to win last year. This year is all about Colin Firth. Poor poor Leo, snubbed again by The Academy. I respect Leo as an actor and I feel like he's gonna be in this game a long time (as long as he keeps working with Scorsese) so he'll pick up an Oscar later on down the line. It would have been nice to see Ryan Goseling nominated in this category for BLUE VALENTINE. His role in that film shook me to the core. It's good to see he's redeemed himself for that NOTEBOOK bullshit.
Final Answer: Colin Firth
Have I told you how much I despise Natalie Portman? I have a laundry list of grievances with her that I will save for another post. I will say this: YOU CANNOT BE IN A STAR WARS FILM AND ADMIT YOU HAVE NEVER SEEN ANY STAR WARS FILMS BEFORE! Anyhow, I did enjoy BLACK SWAN, saw it twice in fact. I also enjoyed Jennifer Lawrence in WINTER'S BONE, she really proved herself as a young up and coming actress. There's that slight chance that Annette Benning may finally get her career Oscar. She should have gotten it for AMERICAN BEAUTY but Hillary Swank got the award that year. I'm all for Career Oscars, Scorsese finally got his a couple years back with THE DEPARTED. But so help me god if Natalie Portman starts talking about baby daddy and snorting on that podium again.
Final Answer: Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actor
If Fake Michael Cera can be nominated in the Best Actor category, why didn't they nominate Andrew Garfield in Supporting? I enjoyed his performance in SOCIAL NETWORK much more than Fake Cera (but not as much as JT's performance for obvious reasons). That Garfield kid is gonna do big things and I'm not just referring to SPIDERMAN. He was great in THE RED RIDING TRILOGY & THE IMAGINARIUM OF DOCTOR PARNASSUS. This award is going to Christian Bale hands down. This is also kind of a Career Oscar; I mean the guy lost 60lbs for THE MACHINIST. I only hope they play this song when he wins:
Final Answer: Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress
If you would've asked me a couple weeks ago who should win this award, I would have said Melissa Leo. However, in light of recent events I think Melissa Leo fucked herself. The Academy does not like personal campaigns and generally punishes any kind of bragadocious attitudes. Hailee Steinfeld just might have edged her out of the game. This kid was extraordinary in TRUE GRIT. Amy Adams already has an Oscar so I think her chances are pretty slim of getting another (Tom Hanks lightening doesn't strike very often). Also, instead of nominating Jacki Weaver (don't get me wrong, ANIMAL KINGDOM was really good, but Best Supporting Actress?), Mila Kunis should have been recognized for her compelling role in BLACK SWAN.
Final Answer: Hailee Steinfeld
Best Adapted Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin cleaned up at all the other awards shows in this category. I think he's got it locked in, unless the Academy throws WINTER'S BONE a bone. Did you know Sorkin also wrote the screenplay for A FEW GOOD MEN?
Final Answer: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Best Original Screenplay
Since Christopher Nolan got stubbed in the directing category, I think INCEPTION is gonna clean up on technical awards. There is a slight chance that THE KING'S SPEECH might take this award.
Final Answer: INCEPTION
David Fincher's films always have really sharp concise editing. I think the editing in THE SOCIAL NETWORK is what made the storytelling so fluid.
Final Answer: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
What can I say? The Coens have perfected the art of cinematography! They can make the shittiest parts of Texas look breathtaking and colossal.
Final Answer: TRUE GRIT
If you would have told me years ago when I was dancing at the gay/goth bar to NIN's "Closer," that Trent Reznor would be an Oscar Nominee I would've laughed in your face. He and Fincher have created a relationship that works marvelously on screen. If you remember, he also scored SEVEN and that film would not have been as haunting without it's anguished soundtrack.
Final Answer: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
I would love to see Banksy win just as much as you, but will it really happen? Very unlikely. Don't forget how conservative The Academy is. Banksy may just be a little too much for them. I wouldn't be surprised if RESTREPO took this category considering how much they loved THE HURT LOCKER last year. I think EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP has a slight chance of winning just so we can see if he'll really show up.
Final Answer: RESTREPO
This is one of my favorite categories and I have been so torn over who will win. I absolutely loved DOGTOOTH, but I think it may be a little too risque for the Academy. There has been much buzz surrounding IN A BETTER WORLD & INCENDIES. I think BIUTIFUL will take this category. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu has build great momentum behind his films (BABEL, AMORRES PERROS, 21 GRAMS) and proven himself as an amazing director. If they take this award, it will make up for Javier Bardem's loss in the Best Actor category. By the way, his role in BIUTIFUL is the first performance entirely in Spanish to be nominated for Best Actor. If you only see one film from this whole list, please see BIUTIFUL. Of course I'm completely biased because I really love Javier Bardem. DOGTOOTH is also great; if Lars Von Trier directed THE VILLAGE it would be DOGTOOTH.
Final Answer: BIUTIFUL
I know I left out a few more categories, but as I said before if it's a technical award (Visual Effects, Sound Editing/Mixing, Art Direction) it goes to INCEPTION. If it's Animated or Best Song category, I say TOY STORY 3. Who really cares about Make-up or Shorts? Notice how these winners are usually the ones with the longest acceptance speeches. Anyhow, I will see you guys next Sunday. Good luck to all my favorites!
Who do you think will win?