I’ve been putting off my prediction post because for the first time in years, I’m not so certain about the winners. Shocking! I know right? There are some really great films and actors nominated. I think it could virtually go any way with some of these categories. There are also some blatant snubs that I hope the Academy is kicking themselves over (i.e. Leo & Affleck). With the awards only five days away, I figured I better get my predictions out before it’s too late. Also, I’d like to read D. Beth’s predictions so that we can compare notes. Here you go:
I saw every picture nominated except for LES MIS (I’ve seen the play so I get the idea). With the exception of ZERO DARK THIRTY and SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK, I really enjoyed the Best Picture Films. I feel like BEASTS OF THE SOUHTERN WILD is the true dark horse of this category. It was the first film of the relatively unknown, Behn Zeitlin, with a cast of locals who were not intended to be actors. This is one of the most unique stories I have ever seen on the big screen. To get so much emotion and dept from the young actress who played Hushpuppy was astounding. However, the Academy rarely recognizes freshman filmmakers or child actors. Having said that, I believe ARGO will take this category. The Academy snubbed Affleck in the Directing category so I hope they recognize their error and give ARGO the Best Picture award it deserves. It is quit clear that this film was a passion project of all the people involved. ARGO is a fantastic film with a wonderful ensemble cast, phenomenal editing, and great directing.
With nine Best Picture nominees and only five Best Directing nominees, it’s obvious that a few directors were going to be left out in the cold. I was upset Tarantino wasn’t nominated, but not entirely surprised. QT is a little too brazen for The Academy and they tend to dislike directors who push the envelope. Besides BEASTS, this category could really go to anyone. They are all established and acclaimed directors. David O. Russell was nominated in this category not too long ago for THE FIGHTER so it could be his time to shine. Ang Lee and Spielberg each have Oscars. I would love to see Michael Haneke win, but that won’t happen. My prediction is that Spielberg takes the Award. I don’t necessarily think LINCOLN was remarkably directed, but I think the Academy will throw him a bone since he hasn’t won an Award since 1999 for SAVING PRIVATE RYAN.
For a while I really thought Bradley Cooper was the front runner of this category, but now I’m predicting Daniel Day-Lewis. This was not my favorite performance by Day-Lewis, but I think it eclipses the other mediocre performances. Let’s face it, Joaquin Phoenix playing a full on crazy person is no stretch of the imagination. Cooper’s performance left a stale taste in my mouth. I never felt a connection to him nor do I think he had any chemistry with J. Law. Did anyone else besides Beth & Jason see FLIGHT? I’m going to go ahead and put my money on Daniel Day-Lewis on this one.
J. Law seems to be the front runner in this category from the beginning. She really proved her talent with the breakout role in WINTER’S BONE (which she was also nominated for an Oscar) and has been on the path to a lasting career since. Unfortunately, I think there could’ve been a better film to win for. Her character in SILVER LINNINGS was incredibly one dimensional. I was cringing in my seat during the dance scenes where she talks bout “this & that being a feeling.” This entire film felt like one big cliché. Jessica Chastain could be the dark horse of this category with her extremely emasculating role in ZERO DARK THIRTY, but I’d go with Jennifer Lawrence as the winner.
Best Supporting Actor
Every single actor nominated in this category already has an Oscar. They each portrayed considerably complex characters. My choice to win came down to Tommy Lee Jones and Robert De Niro. I’m having a hard time deciding on one. Jones was one of the most entertaining aspects of LINCOLN which at times felt a bit slow. De Niro and Chris Tucker were the true talent and saving graces of SILVER LININGS. It’s been a while since either won an award so I will call a tie for this category.
Best Supporting Actress
Initially, there was much buzz surrounding Sally Field’s performance in LINCOLN. Although, now it appears that Bland Hathaway may walk away with this undeserving award. Bland Hathaway is a terrible actress and as we saw the year before, an even worse Oscar host. As we all know, if you ugly yourself up, you usually get an Oscar (i.e. Charlize Theron, Halle Berry, Hilary Swank). Let’s face it; Hathaway is a second rate Natalie Portman who is a second rate Jennifer Connelly. I predict she finally gets the Oscar she has been relentlessly campaigning for.
This is one of my favorite categories. I absolutely love documentaries. There are usually one or two really controversial films included. This year, the front runner seems to be SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN. I really enjoyed this film and felt very inspired by it. Several people indicated that it was really depressing. I think it was just the opposite. This man lived a full and happy life with people he loved, but continued to have a great passion for music. He chose to live a modest life, yet was still fulfilled. This film really showcased the raw & pure talent of Rodriguez. I think SUGAR MAN will definitely win this category.
This is a no brainer. The only foreign film (AMOUR) to be nominated for Best Picture will most certainly win Best Foreign Film. If you get a chance, check out Haneke’s previous Best Foreign nominated film, THE WHITE RIBBON. It is an equally haunting piece. Unfortunately, Hanake lost in 2009 to THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES (which in my opinion is one of the best films of the last decade). This is his year to finally win this category.
Best Adapted Screenplay
I would immediately choose ARGO for this category because it is such an intelligent script. Nonetheless, I think the Academy will choose LINCOLN. I picture most of the Academy members bearing a striking resemblance to many of the pompous politicians in LINCOLN (minus the wigs).
Best Original Screenplay
The only Oscar Tarantino has won was in this category for PULP FICTION and I think he has a solid chance this time around. Notwithstanding, the Academy loves war films and ZERO DARK THIRTY has an opportunity to steal this category. I’m still going to bet on QT for DJANGO UNCHAINED. If he doesn’t win, I will be drinking profusely.
Additionally, I think LIFE OF PI will sweep the technical awards like Cinematography, Visual Effects, and Score. That Adele song will win Best Song. ANNA KARENINA will take Costume Design (which I think is a stretch). Spike is betting on FRANKENWEENIE for Best Animated which by the way is the only film nominated he has watched in its entirety. Who do you think will win? Who do you want to win? Let’s just hope Seth MacFarlane is bearable. Let’s also hope they find better presenters in the future. See you at the party!